{"id":3982,"date":"2026-02-28T01:44:12","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T01:44:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/isi.designhouse.co.uk\/insights\/ceic-2\/"},"modified":"2026-03-07T22:35:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T22:35:19","slug":"ceic-2-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/isi.designhouse.co.uk\/zh-hans\/insights\/ceic-2-12\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010CEIC\u6570\u636e\u900f\u89c6\u3011\u6c83\u4ec0\u83b7\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u63d0\u540d\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u6d88\u5316\u7279\u6717\u666e\u63d0\u540d\u51ef\u6587<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">\u00b7<\/span>\u6c83\u4ec0\u6267\u638c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u73b0\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5bf9\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u8c28\u614e\u6001\u5ea6\u5c61\u906d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6279\u8bc4\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u662f\u4f1a\u5ef6\u7eed\u6614\u65e5\u201c\u901a\u80c0\u9e70\u6d3e\u201d\u7684\u4f5c\u98ce\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u63a8\u884c\u4e0e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7acb\u573a\u66f4\u8d34\u5408\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u622a\u81f3\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5546\u4e1a\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\uff08<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">CME<\/span>\uff09\u7684<a style=\"background-color:transparent;box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(136, 75, 143);outline:currentcolor !important;text-decoration:none;touch-action:manipulation;\" href=\"https:\/\/insights.ceicdata.com\/CME-FedWatch-Tool-Target-Rate-Probabilities\"><span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing:border-box;font-weight:bolder;\">\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u89c2\u5bdf\u5de5\u5177FedWatch<\/strong><\/span><\/a>\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7684\u671f\u8d27\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u4e0b\u8c03\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8fd1\u671f\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u6c83\u4ec0\u83b7\u4efb\u524d\u4fbf\u5df2\u663e\u73b0\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u4e5f\u968f\u4e4b\u8d70\u5f3a\u3002\u8fd9\u6216\u8bb8\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u884c\u8d85\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u4e00\u4e9b\u4ee4\u4eba\u610f\u5916\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/isi.designhouse.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/E688AAE5B18F2026-02-282009.46.22-1.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><em><u>\u70b9\u51fb<\/u><\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/insights.ceicdata.com\/CEIC%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E6%8E%A8%E5%87%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%B3%A2%E5%85%B0%E5%86%9C%E4%B8%9A%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0%E6%98%BE%E7%A4%BA%E9%A3%9F%E5%93%81%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80%E6%94%BE%E7%BC%93\"><em><u>\u8fd9\u91cc<\/u><\/em><\/a><em><u>\u901a\u8fc7CEIC\u6570\u636e\u5e73\u53f0\u67e5\u770b\u56fe\u8868<\/u><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">1<\/span>\u6708\u521d\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u7c98\u6027\u8d85\u51fa\u9884\u671f\u3002\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\u8d70\u5f3a\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u671f\u8f6c\u53d8\uff1b<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">12<\/span>\u6708\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u589e\u52a0<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">5<\/span>\u4e07\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u964d\u81f3<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">4.4%<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u5e03\u540e\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5e02\u573a\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ece\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u9700\u6c42\u6b63\u5728\u964d\u6e29\u3002\u6765\u81ea\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6570\u636e\u516c\u53f8<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">Revelio Labs<\/span>\u7684\u9ad8\u9891\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u81ea<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">2025<\/span>\u5e74\u521d\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5c97\u4f4d\u53d1\u5e03\u6570\u91cf\u5df2\u51cf\u5c11\u8d85<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">7<\/span>\u4e07\u4e2a\uff1b\u4ec5\u4e13\u4e1a\u670d\u52a1\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u62db\u8058\u5e7f\u544a\u5c31\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">100<\/span>\u4e07\u3002<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/isi.designhouse.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/E688AAE5B18F2026-02-282009.48.16.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><em><u>\u70b9\u51fb<\/u><\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/insights.ceicdata.com\/CEIC%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E6%8E%A8%E5%87%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%B3%A2%E5%85%B0%E5%86%9C%E4%B8%9A%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0%E6%98%BE%E7%A4%BA%E9%A3%9F%E5%93%81%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80%E6%94%BE%E7%BC%93\"><em><u>\u8fd9\u91cc<\/u><\/em><\/a><em><u>\u901a\u8fc7CEIC\u6570\u636e\u5e73\u53f0\u67e5\u770b\u56fe\u8868<\/u><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">CEIC<\/span>\u4e13\u6709\u7684\u5373\u65f6\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u663e\u793a\uff0c<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">1<\/span>\u6708\u7f8e\u56fd\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u4e1a\u5c97\u4f4d<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">9.4<\/span>\u4e07\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7a33\u5b9a\u5728<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">4.4%\u2014\u2014<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u636e\u75b2\u8f6f\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8db3\u4ee5\u7ed9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u65bd\u538b\u4ee5\u63a8\u884c\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u6539\u53d8\u77ed\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/isi.designhouse.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/E688AAE5B18F2026-02-282009.48.33.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><em><u>\u70b9\u51fb<\/u><\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/insights.ceicdata.com\/CEIC%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E6%8E%A8%E5%87%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%B3%A2%E5%85%B0%E5%86%9C%E4%B8%9A%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0%E6%98%BE%E7%A4%BA%E9%A3%9F%E5%93%81%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80%E6%94%BE%E7%BC%93\"><em><u>\u8fd9\u91cc<\/u><\/em><\/a><em><u>\u901a\u8fc7CEIC\u6570\u636e\u5e73\u53f0\u67e5\u770b\u56fe\u8868<\/u><\/em><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/isi.designhouse.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/E688AAE5B18F2026-02-282009.49.08.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><em><u>\u70b9\u51fb<\/u><\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/insights.ceicdata.com\/CEIC%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E6%8E%A8%E5%87%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%B3%A2%E5%85%B0%E5%86%9C%E4%B8%9A%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0%E6%98%BE%E7%A4%BA%E9%A3%9F%E5%93%81%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80%E6%94%BE%E7%BC%93\"><em><u>\u8fd9\u91cc<\/u><\/em><\/a><em><u>\u901a\u8fc7CEIC\u6570\u636e\u5e73\u53f0\u67e5\u770b\u56fe\u8868<\/u><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">CEIC<\/span>\u901a\u80c0\u5373\u65f6\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u663e\u793a\uff0c<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">1<\/span>\u6708\u7f8e\u56fd\u7269\u4ef7\u4fdd\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5370\u8bc1\u4e86\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u5177\u6709\u7c98\u6027\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002\u4f4f\u623f\u548c\u98df\u54c1\u6210\u672c\u4ecd\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u76ee\u6807\u6c34\u5e73\uff08\u90e8\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u5173\u7a0e\u5f71\u54cd\uff09\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u964d\u606f\u65f6\u673a\u7684\u628a\u63e1\u66f4\u5177\u6311\u6218\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ceicdata.com\/sites\/default\/files\/inline-images\/%E6%88%AA%E5%B1%8F2026-02-28%2009.49.59.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><em><u>\u70b9\u51fb<\/u><\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/insights.ceicdata.com\/CEIC%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E6%8E%A8%E5%87%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%B3%A2%E5%85%B0%E5%86%9C%E4%B8%9A%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0%E6%98%BE%E7%A4%BA%E9%A3%9F%E5%93%81%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80%E6%94%BE%E7%BC%93\"><em><u>\u8fd9\u91cc<\/u><\/em><\/a><em><u>\u901a\u8fc7CEIC\u6570\u636e\u5e73\u53f0\u67e5\u770b\u56fe\u8868<\/u><\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u6c83\u4ec0\u7684\u9e70\u6d3e\u5386\u53f2\u5305\u62ec\u4e00\u6b21\u8457\u540d\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u91cf\u5316\u5bbd\u677e\u7684\u6295\u7968\u3002\u4f46\u4ed6\u8fd1\u671f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6301\u7eed\u7f29\u8868\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u4e0b\u8c03\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u56fe\u8868\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b9e\u65bd\u91cf\u5316\u7d27\u7f29\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u73af\u5883\u4ecd\u4fdd\u6301\u5bbd\u677e\u3002\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">\u201c<\/span>\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8c03<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">+<\/span>\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u89c4\u6a21\u7f29\u5c0f<span style=\"box-sizing:border-box;\">\u201d<\/span>\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7ec4\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ceicdata.com\/sites\/default\/files\/inline-images\/%E6%88%AA%E5%B1%8F2026-02-28%2009.50.16.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><em><u>\u70b9\u51fb<\/u><\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/insights.ceicdata.com\/CEIC%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E6%8E%A8%E5%87%BA%E7%9A%84%E6%B3%A2%E5%85%B0%E5%86%9C%E4%B8%9A%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0%E6%98%BE%E7%A4%BA%E9%A3%9F%E5%93%81%E9%80%9A%E8%83%80%E6%94%BE%E7%BC%93\"><em><u>\u8fd9\u91cc<\/u><\/em><\/a><em><u>\u901a\u8fc7CEIC\u6570\u636e\u5e73\u53f0\u67e5\u770b\u56fe\u8868<\/u><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u70b9\u51fb<\/strong><a 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